A new report commissioned by the Department of Public Service has become the latest flashpoint in the battle over climate policy in Vermont.
Last year, the Democratically controlled Legislature advanced a climate initiative, called the clean heat standard, that seeks to reduce carbon emissions in the state鈥檚 heating sector.
Republican Gov. Phil Scott vetoed the measure before being overridden by lawmakers. And he said during a press conference Thursday that his opposition has been vindicated that pegs the costs of transitioning to a thermal sector that meets Vermont鈥檚 emission-reduction targets at more than $9 billion.
鈥淚鈥檝e always believed affordability concerns should be taken seriously, because they鈥檙e significant,鈥� Scott said. 鈥淲e need to be thoughtful and realistic and make sure we鈥檙e not hurting the Vermonters that can least afford it.鈥�
"This may be selfless. This may be even noble 鈥� But that doesn鈥檛 mean everyday Vermonters who are struggling with inflation and rising property taxes can bear it.鈥�Commissioner of Public Service June Tierney
The analysis was commissioned by the Department of Public Service and conducted by a Rhode Island-based technical consulting company called NV5. The report鈥檚 authors say the $9.6 billion figure does not represent 鈥渁ctual program costs鈥� needed to implement the clean heat standard. And a more detailed cost analysis 鈥� including estimated impacts on per-gallon fuel costs 鈥� won鈥檛 arrive until Vermont鈥檚 Public Utility Commission completes its work early next year.
Scott鈥檚 Commissioner of Public Service June Tierney, however, said the report confirms that there will be a 鈥渟ignificant cost鈥� to Vermonters if lawmakers vote to enact the clean heat standard during the next legislative session.
鈥淭he clean heat standard would require Vermonters to incur costs themselves to achieve societal benefits that accrue globally,鈥� Tierney said Thursday. 鈥淣ow this may be good. This may be selfless. This may be even noble 鈥� But that doesn鈥檛 mean everyday Vermonters who are struggling with inflation and rising property taxes can bear it.鈥�
Jared Duval is a member of the Vermont Climate Council, which has endorsed the clean heat standard as a necessary tool for the state to meet emissions-reduction mandates that were enshrined in statute in 2020.
While the latest report forecasts $9.6 billion in upfront costs over the next 25 years to reduce thermal-sector emissions, Duval said it also predicts $11.7 billion in 鈥渟ocietal benefits鈥� as a result of that work.
He said Vermonters face a threshold decision about their energy future. And he likened that choice to someone dealing with a leaky roof.
鈥淚s there a cost to fixing that roof? Absolutely,鈥� Duval said. 鈥淎re the benefits of not having water damage and mold throughout your house worth that initial upfront investment of fixing your roof? Absolutely.鈥�
The benefits of moving away from expensive fossil fuels, and reducing carbon emissions, according to Duval, warrant the investments needed to reduce energy demand, and transition away from fuels such as heating oil and propane.
鈥淲e are seeing that climate destabilization is here and it is wreaking massive costs on Vermonters and people throughout the world,鈥� he said. 鈥淎nd so we do have a responsibility to make upfront investments that are going to reduce 鈥� both the energy costs that Vermonters face and the damages of climate disruption. That鈥檚 part of the responsibility here.鈥�
鈥淸The governor] has gone to the strongest lever he can apply, the lever of inducing fear.鈥�Addison County Sen. Chris Bray
Addison County Sen. Chris Bray, the Democratic chair of the Senate Committee on Natural Resources, said the clean heat standard Scott is warning against doesn鈥檛 yet exist.
鈥淩ight now, the governor talks about it like it鈥檚 a plane that鈥檚 taxiing to the end of the runway and it鈥檚 about to take off in January and it鈥檚 about to hit everyone,鈥� Bray said.
Bray said the proposal is in fact a work in progress, and that lawmakers will use analyses such as the one produced by NV5, and a proposed clean heat framework from the Public Utility Commission that鈥檚 forthcoming, to inform legislation that will get an up-or-down vote in Montpelier next year.
鈥淲e will take the information we get, and we won鈥檛 be starting from scratch ... but we have to write another whole bill to move forward a program,鈥� he said.
Bray said Scott is using his 鈥渂ully pulpit鈥� to make the case preemptively against what could be an important and beneficial piece of climate legislation.
鈥淗e鈥檚 gone to the strongest lever he can apply, the lever of inducing fear,鈥� he said. 鈥淎nd that isn鈥檛 conducive to having a conversation that will help us solve this problem together.鈥�
The governor said Thursday that he鈥檚 especially concerned about the implications of the clean heat standard on low-income Vermonters. And since approximately 70% of Vermonters heat their homes with fossil fuels, he said, a majority of residents will be impacted by any plan that has the effect of increasing fuel costs.
鈥淔rom my perspective, this is starting to look a lot like single-payer,鈥� said Scott, referencing the ill-fated health care reform plan that legislative Democrats pursued, and then abandoned, during the 2010s. 鈥淎nd we should learn from the mistakes of the past, because Vermonters deserve better.鈥�
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